Your Fantasy Football Draft Goal: Minimize Risk, Find Value

I've pointed it out several times on this blog -- fantasy football is like stock investing. You want to minimize risk and find value.


Matthew Berry does a very good of explaining these general concepts in his 2013 draft manifesto.  Plus he goes into detail about specific players you should avoid or strive to obtain.  It's long but I think it's one of his best articles.  He made excellent use of stats to bear out his points.

Probably Berry's most crucial point was about consistency: 

• First, RBs are the most consistent (i.e., least risky) in terms of yardage drop offs.   Obviously, that comes from them touching the ball a lot; remember though the flip side of touching the ball a lot is that they get hurt frequently, so injury risk somewhat offsets offensive production consistency.
• WRs can experience big drop offs in yardage from one year to the next.
• TDs, for every position, are fluky.  A player with a lot one season can experience a big drop the next, and vice versa.