Matthew Berry does a very good of explaining these general concepts in his 2013 draft manifesto. Plus he goes into detail about specific players you should avoid or strive to obtain. It's long but I think it's one of his best articles. He made excellent use of stats to bear out his points.
Probably Berry's most crucial point was about consistency:
- First, RBs are the most consistent (i.e., least risky) in terms of yardage drop offs. Obviously, that comes from them touching the ball a lot; remember though the flip side of touching the ball a lot is that they get hurt frequently, so injury risk somewhat offsets offensive production consistency.
- WRs can experience big drop offs in yardage from one year to the next.
- TDs, for every position, are fluky. A player with a lot one season can experience a big drop the next, and vice versa.
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