Risky Fantasy Football Starters: Week 1, 2010

Here's your fantasy football risk assessment for Week 1 of the 2010 season:

Carolina Panthers @ N.Y. Giants
High risk: Matt Moore, Kevin Boss
Medium risk: Brandon Jacobs, Ahmad Bradshaw, Steve Smith (Car.), Steve Smith (NYG)
Low risk: Eli Manning, Hakeem Nicks, DeAngelo Williams, Jonathon Stewart
Comments: Moore looked good late last year but bad in preseason, plus the Panthers are a run-first team, so Moore's production is still unpredictable and that means so will be the orginal Steve Smith's.  Boss is feast or famine depending on whether he gets a TD or not.  Jacobs went on a TD diet last year and isn't even the starter.  However, he might just take enough away from Bradshaw at the goal-line to make Ahmad somewhat risky.  As mentioned, Carolina is a run first team; despite the split, Williams and Stewart will get lots of reps, though Williams' TDs might be vultured by Stewart.  The Giants' Steve Smith isn't a risk in himself, but Nicks will probably be the #1 WR in NY.

Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers

High risk: Steeler passing game
Medium risk: Falcons passing game outside Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez
Low risk: Rashard Mendenhall, Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez
Comments: The Steelers won't be starting with Big Ben under center and he's not even team captain any more.  Can Dennis Hixon fill in competently?  Expect the Steelers not to push the issue and instead run and run often.  Mendenhall may not be "the" goal-line back (Isaac Redman is) but will be in on goal-line packages, so he still could get something, plus he'll get the bulk of the carries and could break one.  I don't think Mendy is as risky as some say. 

Cleveland Browns @ Tampa Bay Bucs

High risk: all players not named Cadillac Williams
Medium risk: Caddy, Mike Williams (TB)
Low risk: None
Comments: The Browns running game is a guessing game.  How much usage will Jerome Harrison get?  James Davis?  Peyton Hillis?  Avoid all but Harrison if you can, and even he should be no more than a flex or maybe a RB2 in PPR.  Caddy should get a lot of chances to run but you always have knee injury in the back of your mind when he touches the ball.  Mike Williams of Tampa will start getting his chance to live up to the hype but tone down expectations for now.

Denver Broncos@ Jacksonville Jaguars
High risk: Eddie Royal
Medium risk: Kyle Orton, David Garrard,
Low risk: Knowshon Moreno, MJD, M. Sims-Walker, JaGaffney
Comments: Orton and Garrard shoud be at least steady, if not spectacular.  We'll see if Brandon Marshall's departure cures what ailed Royal last year.

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans

High risk: Donald Brown
Medium risk: Arian Foster, Owen Daniels, Matt Schaub, Dallas Clark, Pierre Garcon
Low risk: Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne, Andre Johnson
Comments: You might question the medium risks.  Daniels is because of a supposed snap-count.  Schaub is because of his ability to meltdown, but he should start for anyone that has him unless they are carrying also Peyton, Brees, or Rodgers.  Just know he's not a lock.  Arian Foster should have no competiton for carries but Houston is a passing team first and Foster had fumblitis last year; I owned him toward the end of the year and watched him quickly get benched in his first major-hype game, though he won me a championship later.  If the fumble problems rear their head, could we see Derrick Ward despite the decline in his game?

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills
High risk: all Bills aside from CJ Spiller
Medium risk: Ronnie Brown, Chad Henne
Low risk: Brandon Marshall, Ricky Williams
Comments: I'd avoid all Bills right now.  Lee Evans always is mercurial.  CJ Spiller certainly looks talented but the Bills' O line is terrible and Fred Jackson and Spiller will eat at each other's value, though right now Jackson might cede more touches due to injury.  Plus Marshawn Lynch lurks in the background.

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
High risk: Nate Burleson
Medium risk: Jay Cutler, Devin Aromashodu, Greg Olsen, Matthew Stafford
Low risk: Matt Forte, Javid Best, Megatron
Comments: Cutler is a medium risk because he's been disappointing both last year and in preseason and is a turnover machine. Burleson is risky because with Best, Megatron, and Scheffler in the lineup, Burleson is the feast/famine deep threat type.

Oakland Raiders @ Tennessee Titans
High risk: Michael Bell, McFadden
Medium risk: Jason Campbell, Vince Young, Titans WRs,
Low risk: Chris Johnson
Comments: Bell is hurt (thumb) and McFadden is fragile and running behind a weak line.

Cincinnati Bengals @ New England Patriots
High risk: NE RBs
Medium risk: Wes Welker, Carson Palmer, TO, Ocho Cinco
Low risk: Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Cedric Benson

Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams
High risk: all Rams not named Stephen Jackson, Derek Anderson
Medium risk: Beanie Wells, All Card WRs not named Fitzgerald
Low risk: none

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
High risk: All 'hawks
Medium risk: Alex Smith
Low risk: Frank Gore, Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis

Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles
High risk: Jeremy Maclin
Medium risk: Kevin Kolb, DeSean Jackson
Low risk: Aaron Rodgers, Greg Jennings, Ryan Grant

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins
High risk: Wash TEs, WRs, RBs
Medium risk: McNabb, Dez Bryant, Dall RBs
Low risk: Romo, Miles
Comments: With Shanahan, the Washington ground-game will be hard to gauge.  Will Fred Davis eat into Chris Cooley's snaps? 

Baltimore Ravens @ New York Jets
High risk: Jets WRs, Mark Sanchez, Willis McGahee
Medium risk: Derrick Mason, LT2, Joe Flacco
Low risk: Ray Rice, Shonn Greene

San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
High risk: All KC passing game but Bowe, Cassell
Medium risk: Dwayne Bowe, Matt Cassell, Charles Smith, Thomas Jones, SD WRs
Low risk: Philip Rivers, Ryan. Mathews, Antonio Gates
Comments: We'll need to see how the Smith/Jones split works out and how Rivers utilizes his WRs.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.